What we call consolidation is the waiting phase before a major move.
We’ve been looking at many signals together here at AltcoinsPedia, starting from some really basics, to some unique, strange and even complex ones.
As time goes on and this current market cycle continues to develop, we will have the chance to look into more and more varied signals.
Each market phase, each market move, each market cycle produces its own unique set of signals that can be read to get an idea to what is currently going on in the market and what is likely to happen next with a high level of accuracy.
Bitcoin’s December 2017 bull-run peak price hit $19,891.
Almost exactly a year later in December 2018 Bitcoin hit a bottom of $3,215.
This number varies depending on the exchange you are looking at or index, the same with the top. The minor variations are completely irrelevant for all intent and purposes.
- In that case we can say the 2017 All-Time High (ATH) was $20,000.
- While the 2018 bottom-low was $3,200.
The bottom/lows are never revisited because Bitcoin is in a long-term growth trajectory, while the peaks/tops can be revisited just as it happened with $20,000 in 2022.
A bear market bottom can turn into a very strong support once this level is left behind. In the same way, a bull market top can turn into a very strong resistance level once a bear market has run its course.
Support levels can turn into resistance; Resistance levels can turn into support.
It was December 2020 the month in which Bitcoin finally moved back above its previous 2017 All-Time High of $20,000, it took exactly 3 years for this key level to be breached.
As the most important resistance level was conquered, this opened the door for new highs in the months that followed.
Just for entertainment before we get to the point of this article, if the same pattern were to repeat and it took 3 years to go pass the current ATH resistance, in this case April 2021 marks the orthodox top for Bitcoin (BTCUSD), we would see Bitcoin go beyond $65,000 by mid-April 2024.
If we count the irregular top in November 2021 as the ATH, then we would see Bitcoin go beyond $70,000 by mid-November 2024.
Now, going back to “consolidation as a bullish signal”.
Bitcoin went through an extended bear market based on past history and on top of this also managed to break below its December 2017 $20,000 support.
The more painful than usual bear market is due to the fact that we went through a period of interest rates increase which is very painful to the fiat economy, this caused the bear market to go for longer than usual and also for the $20,000 strong support to break on the way down.
This is quite the irrelevant fact as it was just a momentary issue since Bitcoin is now safely trading back above this level and this is the point that I am trying to share with you.
In January 2023 we saw how Bitcoin produced a major bullish breakout just to move back above this level, the key $20,000 level.
Bitcoin went on to continue growing even more and hit $25,250 which is the highest price in more than 8 months.
While Bitcoin consolidates we are seeing massive bullish action on the Altcoins side of the Cryptocurrency market, as I just shared with you by looking at Stacks (STXBTC).
As long as Bitcoin continues trading above $20,000, the bulls are in full control of this market, of this chart.
The fact that Bitcoin peaked days ago yet there are no major corrections is a telling sign of whats to come.
The bear volume is none existent, sellers are no more.
Bitcoin consolidating at high prices, near resistance, tells us that soon we will be looking at $28,000, $30,000 and beyond.
Yes, there will always be retraces and corrections, nothing moves straight down or straight up… But any major correction at this point will end up in a higher low compared to November 21, 2022.
Even if a lower low is hit in the recent future, still a very strong reversal would follow this lower low and push prices up.
If we were wise to say “think long-term” at $69,000 before a major crash and such advice would laed to major waiting and deep paper loss… We are even wiser to say at low prices, at the bottom, after more than a year long bear market to buy and hold.
Think long-term, because the bottom can be $15,500, $14,000, $13,000, $20,000, $22,222… It won’t matter on the way up.
Bitcoin’s next All-Time High is set to happen in 2025 and we are looking at a minimum of $180,642 for each BTC, with even higher prices when you take inflation/monetary expansion/money printing into consideration, so whatever price you have now, you will be a genius or at the least a very profitable Bitcoin holder in just a few years from now.
In the next article we will focus on the next Bitcoin top.
I will show you one of the methods that I use to produce this type of estimate and as usual, share some additional information for your entertainment, for learning, for fun.
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